2009 Predictions

A few years ago I met a young pastor named Jeff Waldo from University Baptist Church outside of Houston. Jeff had just finished a Master’s program in Future Studies from the University of Houston. After the disappointing discovery that he knew nothing of horoscopes, crystal balls, tarot cards or fortune cookies, Jeff told me what future studies was about. Future studies is not about prediction but plausibility and possible scenarios of the future so we can plan accordingly. “If things continue along this trajectory, this is what we can expect.” Of course the future rarely has the decency to conform to our expectations and prognosticators are notoriously bad at predicting the future.

Regarding the automobile, The Literary Digest of 1899 predicted, “the ordinary ‘horseless carriage’ is at present a luxury for the wealthy; and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle.”[1] In December 2005 The New Yorker published an article that detailed the research of Phillip Tetlock—a psychology professor at Cal Berkeley. For the past 20 years Tetlock had been working with two hundred and eighty-four people who made their living as “experts” in prognostication about politics and economics. By the end of the study, in 2003, the experts had made 82,361 forecasts by putting most of the forecasting questions into a three possible future outcomes—would things stay the same (status quo), get better (political freedom, economic growth), or get worse(repression, recession). What was the outcome? Statistically untrained chimps, with a dartboard, would have had more accurate predictions![2] Although predicting the future is difficult, discovering the trends and patterns that are happening today that will shape tomorrow is most enlightening. To understand the times we must first open our eyes and observe the times—the day of today we are living in.

STEEPR

The broad bellwether categories futurists use to think about and pay attention to are Society, Technology, Economics, Environment, and Politics. To these five categories Jeff insightfully adds “Religion”—now forming the acronym, STEEPR. Thinking through these six categories helps us think about what kind of day it is. I’ll try to be very specific to see if I do better than a trained chimp. So here are….

Eric’s Predictions for 2009

Society: American troops will drastically draw down in Iraq but we will have a strategic force that remains on as responding “advisors” staying near the embassy / in the Green Zone. More troops will be deployed to Afghanistan. Iran and Venezuela will continue w/ even more bravado but no real action. Obama will extend an olive branch to Russia but this will publically be appreciated by Putin and Medvedev but they will continue on their own agenda trying to consolidate power on the Steppe and resist efforts to make more break-away states part of NATO. U.S. or one of our properties (embassies or bases) will be attacked during first four months of Obama’s presidency—just to see what he is made of. He will respond strongly—to the distress of the far left and far right. He will prove to be a decisive Commander and Chief but will seek help from traditional allies, who share traditional interests. He will appear more measured but determined. Not under his watch. Hamas and Hezbela will re-arm / re-stock with the backing of radical Muslims and take another shot at Israel. U.S. / Israel relations will be strained as Israel will exhibit strength / will more than ever before. U.S. will not join militarily w/ Israel unless Israel is on the losing side of conflict. Bin Ladin will not be captured and will continue to send messages calling for jihad against the West but fewer Muslims will look to him for leadership. More in US will opt for / ask for more (not less) government intervention into business, finance, healthcare as many more (due to higher unemployment) will wonder where the safety net is. This will be called “socialism” but regardless of the name, it is what Americans will ask for and vote in, not out of ideology but practicality. Younger generation will be much more tolerant than their older counterparts.  More gay marriage initiatives will be proposed. These will eventually pass (10-15 years future) but not this year. Universal Health Care for all Americans will be discussed and possibly proposed for 2009 but will not pass this year. Guantanamo will be shut down and most will be released and some of those will commit acts of terror in their country (assuming their country takes them back). Obama will extend Geneva Convention rules on torture to include non-combatants and will extend more oversight on CIA. World hunger will worsen due to agricultural products used for fuel as well as global recession. (Subsidies for grain-based fuel will be reduced or end in 2009) Africa will continue to be the focus of compassion and aid but will remain the same due to poor governance.

Technology: Gaming machines like Wii will be used for athletic training and rehab for elderly. This will be a great breakthrough as it will get more couch potatoes to be somewhat active and will provide a great business opportunity to someone who can link the two together. More people will be using one devise PDAs (like I-phone, Storm, etc) for all technology needs. Google will be a more dominant force for aggregating the world’s knowledge and will sell more of its unique offerings. Web 3.0 will be initiated as computers “learn” more about you and what you are searching for. Cloud computing will be introduced. Companies that rent DVDs will declare bankruptcy as people will be getting more and more content on line. Social sites will level off or decline in existing members as people will opt for fewer though better relationships. The reason? Many will experience the emptiness of having 400+ cyber-friends but no one to call on a Saturday night. Who really wants / needs “followers” anyway? Obama will use technology to connect weekly via his Youtube addresses and will consult American people before making major decisions. This does not mean, however he will follow their direction. After all he is a leader.

Economy: World economy will go further into recession before picking up in 4^th quarter, leading to some demonstrations / riots in countries that have been riding the economic boom (China, India, Brazil, etc). Stock prices, which declined 38% in 2008 will slide 2-6% more in the first quarter before rebounding 12-15% net gain in 2009. U.S. economy will slide only 1% this year (This is still not 1929).  World economy, though strained, will still grow by 1% in 2009. Those who pull out of market and into cash will miss upside. Mortgage rates will fall to 4.75 and that, coupled w/ falling housing prices, will lead to the rebound of the housing market. Net result—more affordable home ownership. Social benefits will increase as will National debt—which will surpass $11t, during 2009. In 2010 taxes will be raised. Even free-market economists will see, by necessity, see the need for Federal bail-outs to core U.S. industries. Money will be given to big 3 auto makers but only after drastic concessions by unions to be more competitive and produce vehicles that are greener and get higher mileage. Asian automakers will pick up larger share of world car market and China will produce a battery operated car that gets 180 miles between charges. Both parties will ask for more government oversight on financial institutions in view of level of corruptions in 2008. Oil will stabilize at ~$60 barrel and gas will stabilize at ~ $2.25 / gallon in 2009. Obama will initiate public works program, the likes of which, have not been seen since Roosevelt era in 1932. This initiative will be stimulus to economic turn-around and put 500,000 people to work in 2009 but the 3 million that public works is expected to employ will not come until future years. Unemployment will not drastically be reduced and will be ~6.8-7% at the end of 2009. China economy’s growth will “slow” to 8% which will lead to some unemployment / unrest (China needs to grow at 9% to have full employment. Businesses, as a whole, will develop new efficiencies which will be helpful. Globally, U.S. will have ~ 25-26 % or world’s GDP but will begin to learn to share the stage with other economic juggernauts. It’s not that America is in decline but as Fareed Zakaria notes, its about the rise of the rest. This is the new reality we’ll need to adjust to and figure out how to thrive in. Bargain hunters with cash will find 2009 a great time for bottom feeding in real estate.

Environment: Cheaper energy prices will make “drill baby drill” directives seem silly (since at current oil prices it does not make economic sense for oil companies do drill for oil that costs them $100-150 barrel to extract from shale, tar, etc.) but also take away some of the urgency of creating alternative energy sources which would be market driven. Because of the lack of urgency government will step in. Congress will pass legislation to increase gas mileage to 30+ miles / gallon for passenger vehicles by 2012. “Green” will be most everyone’s color of choice—Republicans and Democrats alike. Those who dismiss man-made effects of global warming will not be taken seriously. Notwithstanding, the term “Global Warming” will be slowly replaced with “climate change” which is less disputable. Young people will separate from churches that have no concern for the planet so many churches will have some statement on their Website supporting efforts to “steward the earth.” Obama will create some type of “man on the moon” challenge to “outgreen” the world—something like “becoming the largest exporter of energy by 2025.” We will have breakthroughs in solar technology. Part of jobs program will be insulation of older homes, which will train and employ many of the unemployed. Legislation will be passed re energy efficiency of all new building (currently buildings consume 40% of all energy). Nuclear energy plants will be proposed but nothing will be initiated in 2009 because of nuclear storage issues (“Not in My Backyard”).

Politics: Obama inauguration will be a party for the country. (Far right will continue to marginalize Obama dismissing him as a Rock Star, silver-tongued, non-substantive some even suggesting he has a mystical control on people with comparisons being made to odious leaders in history.) President Bush will completely disappear in 2009 to work on his library and write. He will find a stronger place in history as every president after 9/11 will have to face the same decisions as he did. Obama will spend the first year leading from the center (where most Americans reside) which will tick off the far left because he’s too conservative and the far right, because they’ll feel he’s co-opted traditional Republican values (tax cuts, aid to small business, etc., tough on terror, Afghanistan) He’ll be able to get his agenda passed because of majority in congress which will lead to growing popularity. His approval rating will average 55-60% favorable. Internet rumor will spread that there was a Koran under the Bible cover that he swore his oath on. Far right pundits will have less issues of substance to take on, will focus on minutia and create a vocabulary to describe Obama / democratic congress. Much will be blamed on “mainstream media” for hiding the truth from the American people. They will be seen as angry (and maybe a bit prone to conspiracy theories) while the democrats will come off as being pretty likable people. Republican Party will flounder due to an identity crisis, trying to find its voice but will separate further from far right wing conservatives whom they know they don’t represent but can still be counted on. Sarah Palin will not be taken seriously as the future of the Republican Party this year. Conversely Hillary will prove to be an able / respected statesperson. More people will realize that much of news is what it purports to be—“news entertainment.”

Religion: 2009 will be for the church of America what congregations were for the Gulf Coast in 2006. Many more churches will delve into externally focused ministry, paying heating bills for the elderly, demonstrating acts of mercy and advocating justice. Churches that are not engaged in holistic needs will seem out of step. Traditional Christian Spokespersons like Jim Dobson, Ralph Reed, et al will be replaced by those like Rick Warren, Joel Hunter, Rich Nathan. Although much screaming / gnashing of teeth will be heard from some quarters, the faith will survive. More and more churches will try to figure out what “missional” means for them. Pastors and congregants will tire of “the show” if the church is not engaged in the world. Capital campaigns will also include raising money for “the least of these.” Or building programs will be added on as “pork-barrel projects” to compassion oriented fund-raising. More and more Christian leaders will discover that the real “story” is of the kingdom, of which the church is a player, and not visa versa. Leadership Network will not start any new Leadership Communities in 2009 but will discover other “value-add” initiatives that serve churches and will adopt these types of initiatives for the next three years.

So, there you have them. I’ll take a look at these next December.